KAIROS.

Methods & data

Every number on this site can be recomputed by someone who trusts none of the above — including us.

Code, raw responses, blind judgments, unblinding maps, per-item scores and the five pre-registrations are released in full. So are the amendments — including the ones that cost the author his own hypothesis, dated, with the reasoning that produced them.

Pre-registrations & hashes

Each pre-registration was written and hashed with SHA-256 before the corresponding data existed. Every amendment is dated and kept — the audit trail is the point, and it includes the amendments that went against us.

Pre-registrationCoversFinal hashFrozen
PREREG_controllo_memoria_random.md Check 1 — counterfeit control db4d34c0… 2026-07-13 14:16:13
PREREG_sonda_memoria.md Check 2 — no-memory baseline e74ededa… 2026-07-13 15:07:32
PREREG_replica_multimodello.md Multi-model replication 754d5459… 2026-07-13 15:20:45
PREREG_sonda_legami.md Check 3 — symmetric probe, corpus A 3c6609c9… 2026-07-13 15:41:43
PREREG_secondo_corpus.md Check 3 — corpus B 3ce45b23… 2026-07-13 16:07:21

The original 30-day study's protocol was frozen separately on 23 April 2026: the signed manifest, the five conductor files, and instructions to verify the hash yourself.

The limit of all of the above

These pre-registrations are hashed locally, not notarised. A sceptic may ask whether they were written after the results, and we have no cryptographic answer — only the audit trail. It would be incoherent for a paper about unverifiable claims to make one. Prospective registration on a public registry is what makes such a claim checkable, and that is what we will do next.

Code

A few hundred lines, released under an open licence, with a README that tells you how to point them at your own system.

Data
Models & dates
RoleModelWhere
Subject of the 30-day studyqwen3.5:27bTest-A / Test-B, 24 Apr – 24 May 2026
Judgegpt-4.1-2025-04-14Checks 1; original study
Judgeclaude-opus-4-7Check 1; original study
Judgegemini-2.5-proCheck 1; original study
Subject panelqwen3.5:27b · qwen3.6:35b-a3b · qwen3:32b · deepseek-r1:32b · llama3 · gpt-4.1 · gemini-2.5-proChecks 2 & 3, 13 Jul 2026

Panel limits, stated. Twenty-four probes per model per corpus, seven models, four of them from one family (Qwen). Claude Opus 4.7 is absent as a subject: its API key was rotated mid-experiment after an accidental exposure. It appears as a judge in Check 1, not as a subject in Checks 2–3. Ollama seeds do not guarantee bit-for-bit reproducibility; our anti-cherry-picking guarantee is "first usable output, all discards logged" — there were two discards, both structural.

One honest wrinkle in the raw files

If you download the raw output of Check 3, you will find five cells in corpus A marked CONTAMINATA — "the no-memory condition is not at chance" — next to models this site reports as valid. That is not a contradiction we are hiding; it is a conservative script.

The marker is computed over all 24 probes, counting abstentions as errors. Counting a refusal as a wrong answer drives the no-memory condition below chance and manufactures an artefact. The validity check must be read on the probes actually answered, which is what the statistical appendix does and what this site reports. We are leaving the raw marker in place rather than quietly rewriting it, and telling you why here.